All change in the UK?

As ministers, environmentalists and lobbyists from 180 countries gather in the Hague for the UN Climate Change conference, BBC News Online looks at how global warming could affect the UK.  Most climate scientists agree that human pollution, mainly from burning fossil fuels, has increased global warming in the past 50 years.  Global warming may already have had a significant effect on the climate in the UK. Four of the five warmest years for more than three centuries have occurred in the last 10 years.  By the 2050s, annual temperatures in the south east of the country could be on average more than 2C warmer than they are now - 30 years later that may rise to more than 3C.

effects, but it is a complicated package.  Quite a lot if it will be quite nasty."

As well as hotter, we are also likely to get much wetter, both through increased rainfall and rising sea levels, due to melting ice caps.  Predictions by the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia put global sea level rises between 12cm and 67cm by 2050.  By far the worst effects will be felt in low-lying areas of countries like Bangladesh and Pakistan - but there will also be some serious consequences for the UK.

The recent floods and storms in the UK could also be part of a pattern of more extreme weather occurring as a result of climate change.  But Prof Phil Jones, of the Climatic Research Unit, is keen to point out that, as a single event, the floods do not have much significance, instead long term trends will have to be studied.  Studies of long term trends at the Climate Research Unit have found that winter precipitation could increase by more than 20% by the 2080s.

droughts, already a problem in the south during the summers, are likely to become more severe.

Ocean currents transport large amounts of heat around the world: climatologists call it thermohaline circulation (THC).  One example is the gulf stream which warms the UK and the rest of North West Europe. Temperatures are on average about 9C higher than the latitude should allow.  Some experts predict that climate change could disrupt THC. If the gulf stream slows down or moves further south the UK could end up with a climate more like that of Newfoundland.  But Prof Jones says this is unlikely.  "It's very difficult to turn THC off. If Greenland melted perhaps - but there is no sign of Greenland melting."

Research also suggests that the varieties of plants grown in the UK will also be affected by global warming.  If we got a couple of degrees warmer our current range of arable crops would shift northward and maize, more often grown in Southern Europe and North America, would become more popular in the south and the midlands.  Fruits that are also associated with warmer climates, like peaches and nectarines, would also be grown more widely. And the hot summers could also be a real boost to the British wine industry.

Warmer seas around the UK are likely to attract fish that, up until now, have favoured more southern waters. Recently fishermen have reported seeing surprising numbers of mullet, anchovies and various species of shark.

A Mediterranean climate doesn't sound too bad - that is until we also take into account the insect pests that also thrive in warmer summers.  Farmers fear the destructive Colorado beetle could get more of a foothold if the weather warms. In residential areas cockroaches could become more common along with fleas and mites.  Bloodsucking ticks, scorpions and poisonous spiders and even malaria carrying mosquitoes all might become a feature of life in a hotter UK.  And of course if we don't cover up in the sun, increased levels of skin cancer and cataracts are also a possibility.  But whatever climate change occurs in the UK we can be sure that other parts of the world will be far worse off.  "We certainly have the resources to cope with it," says Prof Jones.  "We are better off than a lot of people."